LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL IN ARGENTINA (The Hill Online)

LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL IN ARGENTINA (The Hill Online)

By Mark P. Jones /  April 22, 2015

Dec. 10 will mark the end of the 12-and-a-half-year-long Kirchner era in Argentina. The country’s next president will almost without question be more supportive of free enterprise and private investment, have a greater respect for the rule of law — both domestic and international — and pursue a more centrist and pragmatic foreign policy than President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (who succeeded her husband, Néstor Kirchner, in 2007).

 

One of three men will succeed Fernández de Kirchner: city of Buenos Aires Mayor Mauricio Macri, National Deputy Sergio Massa or province of Buenos Aires Gov. Daniel Scioli. Scioli and Massa belong to Argentina’s large Peronist movement. Scioli is the standard-bearer of the movement’s pro-government wing led by the term-limited Fernández de Kirchner, while Massa is the informal leader of the opposition wing. Macri is the only viable non-Peronist candidate, and last month cemented an alliance with the Radical Civic Union (UCR), which for almost 70 years has represented the political counterweight to Peronism.

 

If elected, each of the three candidates would reduce the degree of unilateral and opaque government intervention of the Argentine economy, exhibit greater respect for the rule of law and improve Argentina’s frayed bilateral ties with a host of nations ranging from Spain and Germany in Europe to Brazil and the United States in the Americas. Thus, regardless of who wins, we can expect Argentina to move toward the more pragmatic and market-friendly social-democratic models of neighboring Brazil, Chile and Uruguay and away from the contrary model represented by present-day Argentina. That said, there are differences among the candidates in terms of the degree to which they would diverge from the current model of government.

 

Of the three, Scioli is the candidate of continuity, with Argentine policies expected to change the least from the current status quo under a Scioli presidency. Macri, in contrast, is the candidate of change, potentially representing the most dramatic break from the status quo (with a caveat discussed below).

 

On one hand, Massa is the Goldilocks candidate, promising a sharper shift toward the Brazil/Chile/Uruguay model than offered by Scioli, but not as great as that offered by Macri. On the other hand, Massa could arguably be the candidate capable of delivering the most robust reform.

 

If Macri is elected president, his electoral alliance would hold only about one-third of the seats (most belonging to the UCR) in both the Argentine Chamber and Senate and run no more than two-fifths of the country’s provinces. Argentina has no experience with successful coalition government, and it is possible that as president, Macri could find himself very constrained in terms of the actual implementation of his desired reforms. In contrast, if Massa is elected president, an overwhelming majority of Peronists would in all likelihood, in line with the movement’s strong vertical leadership tradition, fall in behind Massa as their new boss. As the undisputed head of a party with substantial congressional majorities and control of more than half of the provincial governorships, a President Massa would quite possibly be better positioned than a President Macri to effect the most transformative policy change, since while his proposals would on average be more modest in scope, their prospects for actual implementation would be higher.

 

The presidential election takes place on Oct. 25. It is expected today that no candidate will win enough votes to avoid a runoff on Nov. 22. Recent polls have Scioli (35 percent) narrowly ahead of Macri (30 percent), with Massa (25 percent) in third place, but well within striking distance.

 

As the bridge between continuity and change, Massa would be favored in a runoff against either Scioli or Macri, but to earn one of the two golden tickets to the dance on Nov. 22, he will need to vault ahead of at least one of his rivals between now and the end of October. With the election six months away, it is not possible to proffer a prediction of the outcome of a hypothetical Macri-Scioli faceoff. There are too many unknown factors, including future campaign dynamics, the state of the economy in November and post-first round actions by Fernández de Kirchner and Massa, which could potentially tilt the outcome in either candidate’s favor.

 

Jones is the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy’s fellow in Political Science and Argentina Program director, the Joseph D. Jamail chair in Latin American studies and the chair of the Department of Political Science at Rice University.

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PatAgonica

Soy el Dr. Gastón Alejandro Saint Martin (ARDMS. RVT. RPVI eligible, MD. CCPM). Medico patagónico; me gradué en la UNBA (Universidad Nacional de Buenos Aires, en 1961) Recién graduado y casado fui a hacer mi entrenamiento en la Universidad de Louisville, (UdeL) Kentucky, USA, la mas antigua Universidad Municipal de La Unión; pobre, pero de excelente nivel académico; con una pequeña escuela de medicina. Louisville está en la margen izquierda del rio Ohio (afluente del Mississippi) Elegí a UdeL por estar entre los rio Ohio y Tennessee, que era la zona mas subdesarrollada de La Unión, (cuna de los "Hillbillies") montañeses pobres, poco ilustrados, casi analfabetos pero gente honrada, noble y muy trabajadora; donde era de esperar encontrar problemas de patología medica y socio económicos similares a los de la población rural patagónica indigente. Los médicos residentes de la Universidad de Louisville atendíamos al Louisville General Hospital y al Children’s Hospital of Louisville. Finalizado mi entrenamiento, y al tener yo visa de emigrante, me pude quedar en USA, donde los abogados jueces y los médicos con residencias de entrenamiento completas, teníamos un brillante futuro económico, estabilidad y brillo social. La tentación para quedarse fue muy grande, pero cumplimos mi plan regresando a casa; Argentina (No a Buenos. Aires.) sino a La Patagonia (Gral. Roca, Rio Negro), donde trabajé intensamente, no solo en medicina asistencial sino en política. Para el inicio, recluté un pequeño grupo de médicos argentinos jóvenes entrenados en USA y Canadá con quienes creamos al Instituto Medico del Comahue, el pequeño hospital austral privado pionero en medicina asistencial moderna. Construimos el edificio por esfuerzo propio, y por administración, con la dirección técnica de mi padre (Ingeniero Prospero Saint Martin). Tuvimos muchos éxitos y fracasos. Nos integramos al Colegio Medico de General Roca, donde fui el primer organizador de la primer biblioteca medica patagónica. De nuestros Colegas Veteranos aprendimos la Filosofía Ético Moral Medica Hipocrática) y a ser médicos humanistas, antes que corporativos." Allí, practicando, aprendimos las normas básicas de cortesía entre colegas y pacientes. No fue fácil la convivencia y el pasaje armonico de lo (clásico) antiguo a lo (bueno) moderno, pero ¡lo logramos ... y muy Bien! En el ano 2000/2002 La Anarquía establecida Argentina desde el 10 de Septiembre de 1930 estalló y ya “no pude tolerar al criminal anárquico mamarracho republicano Argentino" que culminó con el "Robo Legalizado" (Google "The Legalized Theft" by Steve Hanke - CATO Instituto and/or Johns Hopkins economist) Como muchos de los argentinos ordenados, responsables, con importante capital de trabajo sin deudas, con algunos ahorros PERDIMOS TODO! Yo no perdí mis edificios, mi casa, mi Consultorio Radiológico) ni mi costoso instrumental diagnostico pero al quedar fuera de corporaciones medicas-hospitalarias corruptas, y fuera de los canales de facturación y cobro ... me encontré despojado de uno de los derechos humanos mas importantes “EL DERECHO A TRABAJAR” , del que depende mi “DERECHO A LA PROPIEDAD” y derecho a de “VIVIR en LIBERTAD” como me de la gana y sin pedir nada a nadie (¡LIBRE ALBEDRIO!) Por ello decidimos volver (ya estando jubilados) por segunda vez a USA. Hoy tengo otra residencia legal en Chicago (Oak Park, 60301) Mi mentor (en USA y Argentina) ha sido el Dr. Rene Favaloro (pionero del bypass coronario), con quien (cada uno por su lado) hemos compartido los mismos dilemas, para decidir volver, y para adaptarnos a esta ANARQUÍA Argentina (ver www.29deJulio.wordpress.com ) – La ANARQUÍA en la que cayó La Republica Argentina el 10 de Septiembre de 1930, fue causado por errores garrafales del GOBIERNO DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DE NORTEAMÉRICA. (Presidente Herbert Hoover (POTUS 31) ...MAS... errores garrafales en la "ACORDADA UNÁNIME de LA TOTALIDAD DE LOS JUECES DE LA CORTE DE JUSTICIA ARGENTINA" ...MAS... errores garrafales del Gobierno del Reino Unido de Gran Bretaña (UK) ...MAS... el error de un soldadito con grado de General y cáncer de estomago Gral. Félix Uriburo) que no se atrevio a desobedecer al Jefe de su jefe cuando le ordenaron "violar a La Constitucio ... "en nombre de ella??) y asi TODOS ELLOS JUNTOS, en un contubernio internacional, por primera vez en la historia de La Republica Argentina depusieron a un Presidente Constitucional, (Presidente Hipólito Yrigoyen) electo dos veces (en periodos NO consecutivos), por el voto popular, y depuesto con la absurda e ignorante excusa (si no fue mentirosa) de ser "ser viejo e inoperante..."

Categories ARGENTINA QTP?, EL CRIMEN DE LA GUERRA, FCPA or FSIA, Juan B. ALBERDI, LAS BASES, MALVINAS/FALKLANDTags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Leave a comment

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